June 2026 Single-Family Rent Tiers: Test the Gap

Cotality's June 2026 single-family rent tiers show annual growth of 0.4% for lower-priced rentals and 2.4% for higher-priced homes, compared with 1.5% nationally, according to its August 20 release. The two-percentage-point tier gap gives acquisition teams a reason to test different revenue assumptions. It does not establish what an individual lease will collect.

What the June Single-Family Rent Index measures

The Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) uses repeat pairing of multiple listing service (MLS) rental records covering attached and detached houses and condominiums. Coverage extends to nearly 100 metros, about 50 with price tiers, alongside a national composite. Cotality revises the indexes with each release. This article uses the August 2026 release, excluding subsequent revisions.

Repeat pairing follows the same property across rental transactions, reducing the effect of changes in the mix of homes renting. CoreLogic economist Frank Nothaft's May 2018 methodology paper describes observations of rents paid by successive tenants. A 2021 paper by CoreLogic researchers likewise describes matching consecutive rental records and modeling the rented date and rent amount; its population excludes multifamily apartment buildings.

Calling this simply an asking-rent average loses that distinction. It is a signal about the leasing market, not a ledger of existing tenants' payments. When comparing it with other rental data and reports, check whether the alternative measures advertised prices, new leases or rents across occupied homes.

How the rent tiers are defined

The tiers classify rents relative to each region's median, rather than using one national dollar threshold. The boundaries below follow the researchers' published methodology.

Under those definitions, the top tier begins more than 25% above the median. The August release's wording, “125% or more above,” does not match the methodology.

For a hypothetical region with a $2,000 median, the boundaries would be $1,500, $2,000 and $2,500. A $2,600 rental would fall in the highest tier there. The same dollar rent could occupy a different tier in another region. These are rent bands, not purchase-price bands or fixed building-quality grades.

A national tier still needs a local comparison

June's national annual increase was below the 2.5% year-earlier pace. Geography also mattered: the Chicago–Naperville–Schaumburg, IL metropolitan area recorded 5.0% annual growth, while Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands, TX recorded −0.2%. Both comparisons come from the August release.

For single-family rental investing, acquisition screening should start with comparable rentals matched by location, property type, size and condition. A national rent tier cannot establish a particular home's competitive position. Stronger rent growth alone also cannot establish that a more expensive acquisition offers a better return; purchase price and operating costs remain separate inputs.

Why an index change is not a renewal instruction

A renewal decision starts with the signed lease, the property's current rent and comparable alternatives available to that tenant. A backward-looking change in a market index does not show whether the existing rent began above or below market.

Suppose a home's current lease charges $1,900 while defensible comparable rents suggest $2,000. That $100 gap is a different question from how quickly market rents changed over the preceding year. Adding an index increase to an already-current comparable-rent estimate can count the same market movement twice unless the forecast period is clear.

Lease timing matters, too. On a hypothetical $2,000 monthly lease, a 1.5% increase adds $30 in scheduled monthly rent. If it begins halfway through the budget year, it adds $180 that year, rather than $360. Compare the proposed increase with potential vacancy and turnover costs, and check applicable lease and local requirements with a qualified property manager or attorney before implementing renewal changes.

Test rent growth while holding other assumptions fixed

For a simple single-family rental underwriting sensitivity, suppose a property starts at $2,000 monthly rent. Assume the tested increase applies for a full year, with a fixed 5% allowance for vacancy, concessions and collection losses, $9,000 in annual operating expenses, and no other income. These are illustrative assumptions, not Cotality estimates or forecasts.

Here, modeled net operating income, or NOI, equals annual scheduled rent after the loss allowance, minus operating expenses. Financing payments, income taxes and capital spending sit outside this calculation.

Figures are rounded to whole dollars. Applying each rate to the same starting rent isolates the sensitivity; it does not imply that this hypothetical property belongs in every tier.

The higher- and lower-tier scenarios differ by $456 in annual revenue after the loss allowance. Holding the loss rate fixed makes the effect of the rent-growth assumption visible without assuming better occupancy.

Then change expenses separately. If operating expenses rise 8%, to $9,720, the 2.4% rent-growth scenario produces approximately $13,627 of NOI—below the flat-rent baseline despite higher rent. This is a stress test, not an expense forecast.

For an actual acquisition, replace the illustration with documented rental revenue assumptions, lease timing and property expenses. Test vacancy and collection losses independently, then combine adverse assumptions. Record the rent, loss and expense combination at which the acquisition no longer meets your cash-flow requirement.