September 2026 Inventory Recovery: Why the Baseline Matters

September 2026 inventory recovery remains incomplete nationally. Realtor.com’s September 30 release reports 1,161,615 active listings, up 5.4% from a year earlier, but still 5.2% below September 2019 and 9.1% below its broader pre-pandemic benchmark. The two shortfalls use different reference points. Neither establishes whether today’s households have enough suitable homes to buy.

Which baseline measures inventory recovery?

The September report’s national table specifies September 2019. Its regional table instead labels the comparison “Pre-Pandemic,” without restating the averaging years.

Earlier Realtor.com reports document a broader convention: the October 2022 report explicitly names a 2017–2019 average, and the September 2024 report compares inventory with the same month in those three years. Those reports establish the historical convention; they do not independently verify the denominator used in September 2026.

Under that convention, a same-month multiyear comparison averages the September counts for 2017, 2018 and 2019. A 2019-only comparison uses just that year’s September count. The calculation in either case is:

Percentage difference = (current active listings ÷ baseline active listings − 1) × 100.

Changing the denominator changes the recovery result without changing how many homes buyers can find. A multiyear average reduces dependence on one year, but can obscure a trend already underway before the pandemic. A single-year comparison is easier to describe, but gives that year all the weight.

For a presentation, preserve the distinction between “versus September 2019” and the publisher’s broader benchmark. Do not relabel the 9.1% shortfall as an inventory-versus-2019 figure.

Does active inventory include pending listings?

Realtor.com’s data dictionary defines active inventory as excluding pending listings where pending status is available. It represents the stock available on a typical day during the month, rather than every property advertised at any point that month. Total listing inventory is a separate measure combining active and pending listings.

The status qualification matters when comparing periods or feeds. Including homes under contract on one side of a calculation while excluding them on the other would undermine the comparison.

The September release covers existing single-family homes and condos, townhomes, row homes and co-ops. New construction enters the series only when listed through an MLS supplying Realtor.com. Builders therefore should not treat this count as a comprehensive measure of unsold new homes. September release methodology.

Regional growth and recovery tell different stories

The original regional table shows why annual growth and the historical comparison need separate labels:

The Northeast and Midwest recorded faster annual growth than the South and West, yet still trail the historical benchmark. The South and West exceed it.

Carry both comparisons into local presentations: recent growth describes direction, while the historical comparison describes the level. Neither substitutes for checking the buyer’s actual geography and price range. Our housing inventory and sales coverage provides related market context.

A recovered listing count does not establish adequate supply

A historical listing comparison does not adjust for today’s household count or test whether available properties match households’ budgets and needs.

Consider a hypothetical market whose inventory returns to 1,000 listings while its household count rises from 100,000 to 110,000. Listings per 1,000 households fall from 10 to about 9.1 despite the recovery in the raw count. Even that household-adjusted ratio would not establish affordability or measure how many households are actively shopping.

Realtor.com’s separate supply-gap research, published March 3, 2026, illustrates the additional analysis required. It considers housing starts, household formation and estimated pent-up household demand—inputs that address a different question from how many properties are currently listed.

For an agent advising a seller, examine competing listings and evidence of buyer activity in the relevant segment. For a builder or investor, assess the homes that would compete with the proposed product and the households able to afford it. Evaluate seller flexibility separately through measures such as inventory and price-cut patterns.

Keep the release date with the calculation

Realtor.com says it reissues its historical series monthly and may revise earlier observations. Its data library also warns that changing coverage and definitions can affect comparisons. A later download should not silently replace the evidence behind an earlier presentation.

When assembling a series from our inventory data and reports, record the measurement month, release date, geography, listing-status definition and stated baseline, preserving any uncertainty about the baseline years. Save the source table as well: a caption saying only “back to normal” leaves the central comparison undefined.