FHFA Q2 2026: Metro Price Dispersion Spans 11.46 Points

The FHFA Q2 2026 release shows metro price dispersion of 11.46 percentage points across its 100-area purchase-only comparison. Annual changes ranged from −3.73% in Everett, Washington, to +7.73% in Elgin, Illinois, both metropolitan divisions. That spread makes the national gain a weak standalone assumption for a concentrated local portfolio. The figures come from FHFA’s original quarterly tables.

Published August 25, 2026, the release reported national appreciation of 2.1% from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, with prices up 0.3% from Q1. Both are seasonally adjusted purchase-only results. FHFA’s release adds geographic detail to the preceding monthly FHFA reading, but an annual metro comparison answers a different question from a monthly national movement.

How widely did annual metro price changes differ?

The extremes show the full range; the middle of the distribution helps put them in context. Our calculations from the original report’s 100-area table produce the following results. All changes are seasonally adjusted and nominal, meaning they are not adjusted for inflation.

The median was close to the national gain, yet nearly a quarter of the listed areas recorded declines. For a lender with collateral concentrated in one market, the similarity between the national result and the median says little about that particular exposure.

To reproduce the calculations, use all 100 “1-Yr” observations on printed pages 18–20. Give each area equal weight, sort the rates, and calculate the median and inclusive, linearly interpolated percentiles, equivalent to spreadsheet PERCENTILE.INC. The calculations use the report’s rounded rates. They describe dispersion among the listed areas; they neither reconstruct the national index nor measure every U.S. metro.

Match the index and geography before comparing markets

FHFA publishes metropolitan house prices in several index families. The agency’s April 28, 2026 series overview distinguishes their underlying observations:

• Purchase-only: Sale prices associated with conventional, conforming mortgages acquired or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
• All-transactions: The purchase-only sample plus appraisal values associated with refinances.
• Expanded-data: The purchase-only sample supplemented with FHA-backed purchase transactions and county-recorder sales records.

“All-transactions” therefore does not mean every home sale: its additional observations include appraisals without a sale. Expanded-data broadens coverage through additional purchase records. Substituting either series into a purchase-only ranking changes the basis of comparison and should be identified explicitly.

Keep the measurement interval and seasonal treatment consistent as well. A quarterly appreciation rate, an annual change and a cumulative multiyear gain answer different questions. Our guide to understanding home-price measures provides context for choosing a measure that fits the decision.

Geography requires the same discipline. Beginning with this release, FHFA added quarterly indexes for 13 large Core Based Statistical Areas composed of divisions, as documented in the August 25 announcement. In a custom comparison, choose either a parent area or its component divisions; including both counts overlapping territory. Preserve the full geographic name and code when matching a market to collateral.

How coverage limits the interpretation

Repeat-sales methods follow the same properties through multiple observations, reducing the influence of differences among the homes in the sample. They still estimate a market movement around which individual properties vary. The agency’s technical description explains the method and variation associated with property depreciation and local submarkets.

Multiplying a home’s previous price by its metro index change therefore does not establish its current market value. When a valuation decision requires that judgment, review recent comparable sales and the subject property’s condition with a qualified local appraiser.

Broader transaction coverage brings its own trade-offs. FHFA’s technical note on expanded-data coverage, included in its March 31, 2026 report, warns that data-source delays can distort the combined sample and that small samples can make estimates sensitive to a few observations. These limitations warrant investigating unusual differences between series; they do not establish that a particular Q2 metro result is erroneous.

When a national rate needs local support

A national appreciation assumption needs additional support when the exposure is concentrated geographically, relevant transactions fall outside the chosen index’s financing coverage, or current local evidence conflicts with the historical annual trend.

For underwriting, first assess whether the index represents the collateral. Then compare the local annual movement with its quarterly direction and recent comparable sales. Treat disagreement as a research question: changing the index to obtain a preferred growth rate would conceal the uncertainty.

Keep the observed result separate from the forecast. A high annual ranking alone supplies no evidence that a market will retain its position. Test the investment or loan against alternative appreciation paths, and document why the local evidence supports the chosen assumption.

Preserve the release used for that decision. Additional repeat transactions can affect estimates for earlier periods, as the technical description explains. This analysis uses the August 25 attachment; a later download may produce different results. As you follow subsequent readings through our home-price data and reports, keep the geography, index family, seasonal treatment, measurement period and release date beside the forecast assumptions in the underwriting memo.