Fannie Mae October 2026 Sales Forecast: A Smaller Recovery

Fannie Mae’s October 2026 sales forecast cuts projected U.S. home sales for 2027 by about 3.5% from September’s forecast, while still projecting modest annual growth. The much larger 18.2% reduction in mortgage-origination dollars mostly reflects refinancing. These are revisions to expectations, not observed declines—and they have different implications for a brokerage’s transaction budget and a lender’s business plan. September forecast; October forecast.

Fannie Mae’s public announcement is dated October 14. The October table is dated October 12, with interest-rate inputs from September 30. The September table is dated September 11, with rate inputs from August 31. Both editions appear in the publisher’s forecast archive.

How the 2027 home sales forecast changed

Comparing the matching 2027 annual columns gives the following revisions. Sales figures are in thousands of units.

Percentage revisions are calculated from the published September and October tables: October minus September, divided by September, multiplied by 100. Rounded components can differ from totals.

A forecast revision compares editions; annual growth compares years. October puts total sales at 4.672 million in 2026 and 4.713 million in 2027. Its published 2027 growth rates are 0.9% for total sales, 0.7% for existing homes and 1.7% for new homes. September projected 4.1%, 3.8% and 5.9%, respectively. Both editions project growth, but October expects much less of it. October growth estimates; September comparison.

For a resale brokerage, the existing-home row is the closer national reference. It counts homes sold; a firm’s business plan must also account for the buyer and seller sides it may represent.

Refinancing drives the larger lending downgrade

The mortgage forecast separates purchase lending from refinancing. These figures cover single-family mortgage originations for one-to-four-unit properties, in billions of dollars.

Figures and calculations use the same September and October forecasts.

Refinancing accounts for $372 billion of the $414 billion reduction, or about 90%. A refinance replaces an existing mortgage with a new one; it does not require a home sale. The CFPB explains that borrowers often refinance to reduce borrowing costs, while incurring costs for the new loan. CFPB refinancing guide.

Fannie Mae also raised its projected 2027 average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from 6.7% to 7.5%. A higher rate assumption is consistent with fewer opportunities to refinance at a lower rate. That is an interpretation of the revised assumptions; the tables do not quantify how much each assumption contributed to the forecast revision. September rate assumptions; October rate assumptions.

Purchase-loan dollars also differ from transaction counts. Purchase-loan volume equals the number of financed purchases multiplied by average loan size. Prices, down payments and the share of buyers using cash can therefore change lending dollars without an equivalent change in sales.

What annual rates and estimates measure

The quarterly sales columns use seasonally adjusted annual rates, or SAAR: a pace expressed as a full-year equivalent after adjustment for recurring seasonal patterns. Adding four quarterly annualized rates does not yield annual sales. The mortgage-dollar columns are not seasonally adjusted. Forecast units; NAR’s annual-rate explanation.

For observed-market context, NAR’s October 13 release reported September existing-home sales at a 3.99 million annual rate. That was not 3.99 million closings during September. The release came after the October forecast’s preparation date, so it should not be presented as an input to that table. NAR’s September report.

NAR also distinguishes existing-home sales recorded at closing from Census new-home sales recorded at contract signing or deposit acceptance. That timing matters when translating sales expectations into commission receipts or builder cash flow. Sales methodology. It is another example of why housing measures can tell different stories.

Fannie Mae identifies all market-wide origination figures as estimates because no universal data source exists. Historical estimates can change between editions too; this comparison isolates the 2027 forecast. Forecast caveats.

Translate the national forecast into a local plan

A brokerage can use the smaller projected recovery to reassess a growth budget, then rebuild it from local evidence: expected closings, the firm’s attainable share of transaction sides and retained revenue per side. Check pending contracts, cancellations, listing supply and conversion rates before changing staffing or spending. Our inventory and sales reports provide context for those checks.

A mortgage manager should budget purchase and refinance channels separately. Applying the national total revision to both would obscure the difference between a purchase-heavy operation and a refinance-heavy one. Model funded loan counts, average balances and margins separately; origination dollars alone do not establish revenue or profit.

For investors, the national forecast can inform expectations for transaction activity, but it cannot establish a property’s sale price, marketing period or refinancing terms. Compare competing listings and recent closings in the same property type and price range, and obtain financing quotes for the proposed deal. Use local evidence on housing supply and transaction volume to set triggers—such as slower contract conversion or longer selling times—for revisiting the plan.