August 2026 Regional Pending Sales: Monthly Split, Annual Declines

August 2026 regional pending sales rose in the South and West but fell in the Northeast and Midwest, according to the National Association of Realtors’ September 17 release. All four regions remained below a year earlier. Nationally, signed contracts increased 0.3% from July but declined 4.7% from August 2025, NAR reported in its September 17 release. Brokerage leaders should check that modest national gain against local contract intake before changing closing forecasts.

Where regional contract activity changed

NAR’s September 17 release reports these seasonally adjusted percentage changes:

The West had the strongest monthly gain and the deepest annual decline. August improved on July without recovering last August’s activity. The Northeast and Midwest weakened against both comparison periods.

Monthly and annual comparisons answer different planning questions. The first describes the latest movement; the second compares activity with the same month a year earlier. A brokerage can face more work than last month while still handling less than last year.

Regional percentage changes also start from different bases. Their simple average does not reproduce the national change. Use the national result as context, then examine the region and local markets where the brokerage operates.

What the index measures

NAR, a real estate industry trade association, measures signed contracts for existing homes through its Pending Home Sales Index. It uses a sample covering about 40% of multiple listing service data each month and sets average contract activity during 2001 equal to 100. NAR’s release explains the measure.

An index measures contract activity relative to its base; it is neither a transaction count nor a percentage of contracts expected to close. Comparing actual workloads requires contract totals for the relevant offices or markets.

Seasonally adjusted results account for recurring annual patterns, so they need not match the month-to-month change in an office’s raw contract count. This analysis uses the percentage changes in NAR’s September 17 release, available before this article’s September 19 publication.

Contract signings versus closings

A pending sale has a signed contract but has not closed. NAR’s methodological notes say completion usually follows within one or two months, though financing, inspection and appraisal problems can affect timing. That lag makes contracts useful for anticipating work without establishing a fixed closing schedule.

Some agreements also fall through. Financing approval, an acceptable inspection or another home’s sale may remain conditions of completion, depending on the contract. NAR’s guide to contract contingencies explains these conditions. An attorney should assess contract-specific cancellation rights.

The August figures cannot establish any region’s contract-to-closing conversion rate. Nor can August agreements demonstrate a buyer response to a September rate event simply because the report appeared in September. Assessing that response requires subsequent observations.

Inventory requires a separate measure

The pending-sales release does not establish whether inventory is rising. New contract activity, completed sales and homes available for purchase are separate measures. Inventory also depends on listings entering, returning to and leaving the market. A change in contracts alone cannot establish the balance.

Separate inventory evidence was available by publication. Realtor.com’s August housing report, published September 2, reported national active listings up 3.6% from a year earlier. That finding comes from its listing database. It should not be treated as another observation in NAR’s regional index or used to calculate a closing conversion rate.

Our August listing-inventory analysis examines that supply evidence. The inventory and sales reports offer companion measures for tracking housing inventory and transaction activity. Keep each series’ geography, reporting period and definition attached when comparing them.

Build the closing forecast from local contracts

Use the regional release to frame an office review. Group local contracts by signing month, then track their scheduled settlement dates, unresolved conditions and outcomes. For older groups, calculate how many closed within a stated period, keeping still-open agreements separate from cancellations.

Consider a hypothetical group of 100 August contracts: 75 close in September, 15 in October and 10 cancel. Eventually, 90 close, but only 75 contribute to September’s closing workload. Applying the eventual completion rate to September alone would overstate that month’s activity.

For staffing and cash planning, build a schedule from the brokerage’s actual files and test a second case in which unsettled transactions move into a later month. A regional gain can prompt the review; individual contracts supply the dates and unresolved conditions needed to build the forecast.